Curse

RotJ · May 22, 2005, 05:28 AM // 05:28

This thread is for keeping track of pricing trends for the Dye trader and Material trader. Kind of disorganized right now.

Here are the minimum sell prices and maximum buy prices (currently incomplete). Please list time and date if you're submitting. I'm going to try to keep the mins and maxes to within the past 2 weeks or so.

Dye prices are over a week old right now, so they're a bit stale. Please help me update them.

Code:

Dye	Min Buy	Max Sell
Blue	175	296
Green	145	100
Purple	140	155
Red	180	380
Yellow	140	100
Orange	140	40
Silver	250	436
Black	1520	2888
		
		
Material (10)	Min Buy	Max Sell
Bone     	150	10
Iron Ingot	195	0
Tanned Hide	210	115
Scale     	190	0
Shell     	150	0
Raw Cloth	150	75
Wood Plank	150	70
Granite Slab	150	0
Glittering Dust	150	50
Plant fiber	150	0
Feather     	150	0
Steel Ingot	2435	1920
Leather Square	1520	0
Parchment	1180	0

Some graphs of dye prices over time from the middle of May:

Most of the dye prices are pretty stable. But if you want to buy black from a merchant, the best time is usually around 9am to 2pm Eastern. Best time to sell is midnight.

ajeh · May 23, 2005, 08:19 AM // 08:19

Black is going for about 2.5k to sell it to the vendor last I checked.

Not to say your charts are wrong, but I was tempted to vendor it for that price.

Dagbiker · May 23, 2005, 06:13 PM // 18:13

wow, a very nicely done case study, the only thing missing i beleave is:

how many die traiders did you go to?
how many days did you go to them?
did you go to them on a hourly basses?
you are my hero

Mariena Feladon · May 23, 2005, 06:40 PM // 18:40

Quote:

how many die traiders did you go to?

Hopefully just one, as they're all the same, sell for the same price and buy for the same price as any other dye trader. Same goes for the material trader.

RotJ · May 23, 2005, 10:44 PM // 22:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dagbiker

wow, a very nicely done case study, the only thing missing i beleave is:

how many die traiders did you go to?
how many days did you go to them?
did you go to them on a hourly basses?
you are my hero

Yeah. All traders are the same.
The dates are listed in the graph. I basically did it about 5 times per day for 3 or 4 days. Too boring to keep it up, which is why I'd prefer if other users could help report prices. Black dye prices have gone up since I conducted this little study, but since I don't have any more blacks, I don't know what they're selling for.

OrangeArrow · May 24, 2005, 12:43 AM // 00:43

I noticed one think International Districts have no tarders so it possibly mean each world is indepeden t so prices in America Europe and korea might be different

nechronius · May 24, 2005, 12:59 AM // 00:59

I believe you are correct that the prices are different in each major area.

Last night around 8pm PST a single black dye was going for 3800+. I'll have to see about keeping better track of their prices.

freshman384 · May 25, 2005, 07:23 PM // 19:23

Ok, I have an idea, though it will take some work:
Ok, so they dye and material market fluncuate depending on supply and demand, right. And we know that this price can fluctuate a significant amount over the course of a single day. It would be impossible to keep a streaming price update on these prices. However, one price per day at a certain standard "closing time" would suffice to help us relate an items current market price to past times. (it seems that some kind of analysis of prices would serve us better than tryiong to keep up with the newest prices in a haphazard fashion.

Now, the biggest problem is determining the closing time we would want to set. This could be solely discretionary:whatever you wanted it to be. But to get a clear view of the price, we would want that time to be around a time when the price is at about the average for the day. Here is the difficult part: finding that average.

The best way to do this would be to try to get an hourly price on each item for at least a day or two, then average each days and see which time yields the closest to the averages we get. The times when the prices are at the extremes and by how much they usually deviate from this average should also be noted. Whatever time the average gives you would probably be the best closing time.

This would make it much easier in stating the recent prices and analysing trends, if you are looking to make the most money off of your trades. All the would need to be done is a price listing for a given time be displayed everyday.

I know that starting such a system is a lot of hard work, requiring more tome than I or probably any of you have at the moment, but, if only for self validation, I would like to know what you think of this. Maybe someday a system like this could be set up. It would be interesting to watch evolve.

Epinephrine · May 25, 2005, 07:46 PM // 19:46

Lol, you are talking about doing time series analysis on dye prices

My master's thesis was in non-linear time series analysis. I think you are operating on the assumption that you have stationarity, which I doubt is the case, but it would be an interesting experiment.

freshman384 · May 25, 2005, 07:58 PM // 19:58

hehe, Like I said, It would take some time, and seeing as my experience in these sorts of analysis are practically nonexistant (intro to econ and statistics courses) I have know idea what stationarity is, though I enjoy learning new things...
but anyway, I doubt this sort of thing would be good in a real world situation, but for the purposes of keeping up with dye prices in a game...itll be close enough and could be improved upon by those who know more this than I

I really wish I had the time to actually get something like this started

RotJ · May 25, 2005, 10:00 PM // 22:00

Right. Good idea, but it would be more work than I have time to do. All we really need to know are the maximum and minimum prices for each day, and what times they generally come up. Dye prices, at least black dye prices, tend to follow a standard curve every day of a low price in midmorning and high price in late evening, and possibly slightly higher on weekends than on weekdays.

kairusan · May 26, 2005, 05:30 PM // 17:30

Black dye = selling for 2,888 gold at dye trader merchant (NPC) last time i checked.

dabagboy · May 26, 2005, 06:48 PM // 18:48

Umm, don't those prices all fluctuate minute to minute? and somewhat randomly?

I could be wrong but let's say I'm selling Tanned Hides, I could have sworn I'll get different prices if I decline to sell and then ask for a bid 2 seconds later?

The IOU · May 26, 2005, 08:17 PM // 20:17

In that 2 seconds 10 ppl could've bought or sold hides to change that price.

RotJ · May 26, 2005, 08:47 PM // 20:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by dabagboy

Umm, don't those prices all fluctuate minute to minute? and somewhat randomly?

I could be wrong but let's say I'm selling Tanned Hides, I could have sworn I'll get different prices if I decline to sell and then ask for a bid 2 seconds later?

That's kind of the point of this thread. If you know when you can get a better deal on your materials, you can wait for the price to peak and make more money.

Garias Whitanian · May 26, 2005, 09:03 PM // 21:03

red can sell for up to 380

Mordeth · May 27, 2005, 02:23 PM // 14:23

What about tanned hides and other materials?

RotJ · May 27, 2005, 10:48 PM // 22:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mordeth

What about tanned hides and other materials?

I can't keep track of every single material without owning 10 of every material. And I don't want to fill up all of my storage with materials and dyes. That's why I posted this in "Community Works".

crow_killer · May 28, 2005, 07:25 AM // 07:25

i would very much like to try die trading but as people have been saying the prices do fluctuate a lot. To earn good money you would have to know what you are doing by checking over and over again. Perhaps you could record die prices on the first day of each month at say 12.00 miday. This would see what is happening over time.

Mordeth · May 29, 2005, 07:33 AM // 07:33

I just sold a Steel ingot for 500 gold....now looking at your OP it says 1900 max selling....so did I get ripped off? Or am I reading it wrong.